Googling for Bitcoin

Cryptocurrency is a hot topic right now. While still a relatively new idea, its legitimacy is such that the word has even been added to the Oxford English Dictionary. There are more than 275 different currencies as of May 2014, and Bitcoin first and foremost, with a market cap of more than $6.2B.

The fluctuating price of Bitcoin has made it a source of much speculation, with some advocates saying it is here to say, while others are more skeptical.

A major point of concern amongst the naysayers is that it’s a bubble, that the currently volatile price may one day fall to nothing.  Indeed that was our concern at Simeon Capital when we first considered Bitcoin.  However once we dug around, we found a way to guarantee that the price would keep going up and up: Google.

As part of our Bitcoin due diligence, we were trying to piece together the key drivers of Bitcoin price.  One of our favourite research tools is Google trends, and upon downloading the trend data for Bitcoin, we were astonished to learn that the weekly price of Bitcoin moves almost perfectly with the level of Google interest in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin testThe implications are clear – the more times people Google “Bitcoin”, the higher the price per Bitcoin. Indeed, according to our proprietary regression analysis, the level of Google interest in Bitcoin is able to explain more than 70% of the weekly price of Bitcoin!

Upon seeing this, we of course acted quickly, purchasing millions of dollars of Bitcoin, and walls and walls of computer servers. We are currently in the final stages before the search-launch, when we will effectively triple the number of “Bitcoin” Google searches, which according to our analysis should add an incremental $1000 to the price of Bitcoin in one fell swoop!

So buy yourself some Bitcoin, and fire up Firefox.  We are long in Bitcoin, and our wealth is only limited by our Googling capability.  I’m feeling lucky.

(Graph created with Tableau, Sources: Google Trends, Coinbase)

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